Supply is slightly tight, rapeseed meal is strong in the short term

At present, the domestic spot supply of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is tight, which continues to boost the market. In addition, the supply of cotton meal and DDGS, which have a strong substitution relationship, is also tight. Rapeseed meal will continue to operate at a high level in the short term.

The supply of rapeseed meal is tight because there is no food in many places.

With the gradual decrease of domestic rapeseed supply and the high price, the new supply of domestic rapeseed meal has also been reduced. The stock of rapeseed meal is relatively tight among producers and traders all over the country, and the price has risen for a time. At present, the prices of rapeseed meal in Sichuan and Hubei are concentrated in 3250-3300 yuan/ton, Jiangsu in 3350-3400 yuan/ton, and Dongguan in Guangdong in 3550-3580 yuan/ton, even in November-December, the price of rapeseed meal is 3050 yuan/ton. Many factories in Zhanjiang, Zhangzhou, Fangchenggang, Qinzhou and other places have no spot sales, while factories in Fuzhou, Xiamen, Zhanjiang, Fangchenggang and other areas have to wait for imported rapeseed to arrive in Hong Kong after the end of October to start.

Small profits, rapeseed meal maintained strong

Although China's policy of importing rapeseed has been liberalized this year, and the import of rapeseed in January-August reached 22.905 million tons, an increase of 23.96% over the previous year, the market price of rapeseed is set at 5100 yuan/ton this year, which is 100 yuan/ton higher than that of last year. In addition, the actual cost of rapeseed entering factories is much higher than that of last year's. This has laid a solid foundation for the rise of rapeseed meal market.

In addition, the consumption of rapeseed oil is light this year, prices continue to decline, and processing profits of oil factories have been at a low level. In order to ensure profits, oil companies can only limit startup or continue to support meal prices.

Cooler weather, slower consumption

In the spring and summer of this year, there were "drifting pigs" and "bird flu", which made people's consumption of aquatic products continue to increase, while the "Mid Autumn Festival" and "National Day" holidays continued to make this consumption increase. Although the urgency of aquatic feed consumption will be improved with the decrease of temperature, the aquaculture production will not decrease abruptly, which also makes the consumption of rapeseed meal remain vigorous in the short term.

In addition, although China has imported a large number of rapeseed from Australia, Russia and Canada successively, especially after the imported rapeseed arrived in Hong Kong in November-December, its processing capacity may be enlarged, which will alleviate the supply tension of rapeseed meal market, but at present, the supply of rapeseed meal in various places is in a tense pattern, and it is difficult to improve in the short term. In addition, the domestic prices of soybean meal and cotton meal are at a high level, especially the rigid consumption of soybean meal market, and the supply is relatively tight, which also supports the price of rapeseed meal. At the same time, the futures price of rapeseed meal is much lower than the spot price, so it is difficult for the futures price to fall sharply even if the spot price of rapeseed meal is adjusted due to the improvement of supply. In the future, domestic rapeseed meal prices will remain strong.