Fat is expected to bounce back from the bottom.

Analysis of Seasonal Effect of Oil and Fat

The historical trend of the past 20 years shows that the overall increase probability of oil in the fourth quarter is much greater than that in the second and third quarters. It is also evident from the CBOT soybean oil seasonal index that the trend of soybean oil tends to reach a high in February, rebounds in April and continues to decline in May-August. After the last wave of decline kinetic energy in September is dissipated, the next high in October and November is ushered in. The decline in the second and third quarters of this year has created value depressions for oils and fats, including soybean oil and palm oil, and rebounded in August. Seasonal index studies show that rebound momentum is expected to increase further after consolidation in September.

From the point of view of consumption, the apparent consumption of soybean oil in August this year is estimated to reach 1.25 million tons, last month 1.24 million tons, the same period last year was 1.15 million tons, an increase of 8.8%, an increase of 0.67% annually; the apparent consumption of soybean oil in January-August this year was 8.56 million tons, an increase of 2.96% over the same period last year. According to the data, domestic soybean oil consumption in August this year was at the highest level year on year, showing that the terminal stock enthusiasm was higher in the case of strong domestic soybean oil market in mid-late August and double standby market, which also showed that the terminal stock was relatively scarce in the previous weak market.

The apparent consumption of palm oil in China is estimated to reach 590,000 tons in August, 450,000 tons last month and 500,000 tons in the same period last year, an increase of 19.07% and 31.67% year on year. From January to August this year, the domestic consumption of palm oil was 3.8 million tons, compared with 3.57 million tons in the same period last year, an increase of 6.41% over the same period last year. From the consumption level of the same period in history, the domestic palm oil consumption in August this year was at a historical high level and the ring-to-ring growth was obvious, which showed that the terminal purchase intention was strong under the situation of strong domestic palm oil market in August and double standby.

Based on our research and analysis of oil and grease market fundamentals, we believe that the accumulation of oil and grease stocks since last year has been gradually depleted, the worst fundamentals have passed, the peak season of consumption of gold, silver and silver and the seasonal strengthening of prices have come together to provide an opportunity for oil and grease rebound. The low price in late July and early August of the third quarter formed the value depression of the current round of oil decline, and the cost support bottom was tampered. The rebound since August is expected to continue in the next two months.